Monthly stream temperatures along the Danube River: Statistical analysis and predictive modelling with incremental climate change scenarios
Author: Pavla Pekárová, Zbyněk Bajtek, Ján Pekár, Roman Výleta, Ognjen Bonacci, Pavol Miklánek, Jörg Uwe Belz, Liudmyla Gorbachova
Redactor: J. Hydrol. Hydromech., published by Sciendo
Year: 2023
Country: Slovakia (lead institution), multi-national (Germany, Ukraine, Croatia)
Language: English
Type: Text Document
Keywords: Danube River, water temperature, SARIMA, climate change, predictive modelling, stochastic models, regression, RCP scenarios, air-water correlation
Description: This article presents a comprehensive statistical analysis and predictive modelling of monthly water temperatures along the Danube River. The authors analyse long-term historical air and water temperature data, alongside river discharges, using time-series methods such as SARIMA and nonlinear regression (NonL) models. Future stream temperature scenarios are generated based on EURO-CORDEX air temperature projections under RCP2.6 (2031–2060) and RCP8.5 (2071–2100). The study provides projections of increasing water temperatures and evaluates model accuracy across upper, middle, and lower Danube stations. The SARIMA model is found to be more stable and accurate for long-term predictions.
Copyright: No (Public Domain or Creative Commons)